Vernor Vinge Still Thinks the Singularity Will Happen Within 20 Years
“…I think calling that the Singularity is actually a very good term in the sense of vast and unknowable change. A qualitatively different sort of change than technological progress in the past.”
He still believes four pathways could lead to the development of the Singularity by 2030:
- The development of computers that are “awake” and superhumanly intelligent.
- Large computer networks (and their associated users) may “wake up” as a superhumanly intelligent entity.
- Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.
- Biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural human intellect.
When asked which one is more likely, he hinted that he sees a digital Gaia of networks plus people emerging [option 2]
(via The Singularity and schools: an interview with Vernor Vinge | KurzweilAI)