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    Vernor Vinge Still Thinks the Singularity Will Happen Within 20 Years

“…I think calling that the Singularity is actually a very good term in the sense of vast and unknowable change. A qualitatively different sort of change than technological progress in the past.”
He still believes four pathways could lead to the development of the Singularity by 2030:
The development of computers that are “awake” and superhumanly intelligent.
Large computer networks (and their associated users) may “wake up” as a superhumanly intelligent entity.
Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.
Biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural human intellect.
When asked which one is more likely, he hinted that he sees a digital Gaia of networks plus people emerging [option 2]

(via The Singularity and schools: an interview with Vernor Vinge | KurzweilAI)

    Vernor Vinge Still Thinks the Singularity Will Happen Within 20 Years

    “…I think calling that the Singularity is actually a very good term in the sense of vast and unknowable change. A qualitatively different sort of change than technological progress in the past.”

    He still believes four pathways could lead to the development of the Singularity by 2030:

    • The development of computers that are “awake” and superhumanly intelligent.
    • Large computer networks (and their associated users) may “wake up” as a superhumanly intelligent entity.
    • Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.
    • Biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural human intellect.

    When asked which one is more likely, he hinted that he sees a digital Gaia of networks plus people emerging [option 2]

    (via The Singularity and schools: an interview with Vernor Vinge | KurzweilAI)